RUSAL sees twofold cut of Russia’s aluminum imports in 5 years

MOSCOW, Jul 14 (PRIME) -- Aluminum giant UC RUSAL expects Russian aluminum imports to contract twofold in the next five years, Roman Andryushin, RUSAL’s head for Russia and CIS, told reporters on Thursday.

Russia’s aluminum market stood at 2 million tonnes two years ago, including about 600,000–700,000 tonnes of imported aluminum products. “Now, the market is contracting in all directions due to a low consumer purchasing power. Our estimates show the market’s capacity at 1.45 million tonnes. And imports became two times more expensive due to the differences in currency rates,” he said.

“European, American goods have left the market, and Chinese imports also contracted as the yuan turned out to be stronger than the ruble. Correspondingly, the imports plunged to about 250,000 tonnes and consist mainly of goods that we are not able to replace because of our technologies.

“We see this contraction continuing. The imports will fall to about 100,000–150,000 tonnes per year in the next five years. But it will not vanish, as we will still buy some part of ready-made aluminum products abroad.”

Russian lawmakers are working on a bill that prohibits alcohol packaging in polyethylene terephthalate bottles with a volume of more than 1.5 liters, but it will not increase demand for aluminum cans as beer producers will sell their products in plastic bottles with a volume of 1.499 liters, he said.

“I think the positive effect for substitution of plastic bottles with aluminum cans and glass will emerge only if the maximum allowed volume is lowered to 1 liter,” he said.

An international average share of aluminum packaging stands at about 60% of the market, while in Russia it amounts to 17%. “I think that a fair share of aluminum packaging in Russia in the next two or three years should stand at between 30% and 40%, and further grow to 50%. But even if we raise it to 30%, it will add only about 35,000–40,000 tonnes of demand per year,” he said.

RUSAL also expects Russia to start large-scale exploitation of aluminum hopper wagons in 2017. In Europe and the U.S., aluminum hopper wagons account for 70% of the whole wagon stock, while in Russia only two test wagons have been produced, he said.

“Now, the wagons are going through endurance tests. Production of 20 more wagons was launched at the Saransk railcar plant, they will be produced in the next eight weeks. They will be sent to clients and pass tests, and I am sure that we will see hundreds of these wagons on Russian railways next year,” he said.

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